Recruiting Quandary...please help me understand.

Recruiting Quandary...please help me understand.

Postby daltontr » Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:01 pm

I'm recruiting two shooting guards and I'm confused at how to interpret what I'm seeing.

Player #1 (OV 397 - Also, ranked in the top ten players in the state)
SCR/PAS/HDL/IN/OUT/FT/DEF/REB/BK/STL/ATH/OVR/PPG/APG/RPG/BPG/SPG
C / B / C / D / A / C / F / C / D / C / D / C /14.8/1.6 /5.3 /0.8 /2.3

Player #2 (OV 1768)
SCR/PAS/HDL/IN/OUT/FT/DEF/REB/BK/STL/ATH/OVR/PPG/APG/RPG/BPG/SPG
B / D / C / D / A / C / B / D / F / F / C / C /16.0/0.4 /2.1 /0.0 /0.0

Ignoring the OV rating, the two players are very similar to me and I think player #2 is actually the better choice. What player #2 lacks in passing skills, he more than makes up for in defense and athletic ability. Plus, he is a better scorer. Rated "F" in blocks and steals doesn't strike me as a major deterrent when your talking about a shooting guard.

I simply don't understand how these two players could be separated by 1,371 players in the overall ranking.

Should I trust that the OV ranking is more accurate than the evaluated ratings?
How would you interpret this?
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Re: Recruiting Quandary...please help me understand.

Postby PointGuard » Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:37 pm

The ratings are not a science, they're an evaluation and as with most evaluations, not totally perfect. They provide the evaulation of your coaches (or a ratings service) who have biases and imperfections. While generally A & B (overall) players will be better players than most C, D & F players, that's not always the case. The same occurs for the numeric rankings. And the skill ratings might have been influenced by what a coach (or the rating service) noted when viewing the player once or talking to high school coaches. High school (or JC stats) can vary depending on where the recruit played and the competition he played against.

Sometimes you will see a #1048 (overall C) player become a star on your or another team and sometimes a #68 (overall B) player just won't perform well at the collegiate level.

You also have to look at the notes you receive...hard working or not?, injury prone or not?, leader or not?, attitude & displine problems or not?

So, who you choose depends upon what YOU want to focus upon and what you need for your team. Player 2 seems to be a better scorer and probably a better overall defender and may maintain his EN rating better when playing in college, but has far worse stealing and blocking skills that Player 1, Player 1 seems to be a better passer (who dishes out more assists) and rebounder than Player 2. #1768 is pretty darned low so maybe he played for a team that didn't play against as difficult of competition as Player 1, but maybe that numeric rating isn't all that accurate (?). Did the numeric rankings for these 2 players change much from one time of the year to another?
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Re: Recruiting Quandary...please help me understand.

Postby daltontr » Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:15 pm

PointGuard wrote:...Player 2. #1768 is pretty darned low so maybe he played for a team that didn't play against as difficult of competition as Player 1, but maybe that numeric rating isn't all that accurate (?).


At first glance, player two is my guy, because I don't care if my SG is deficient in blocking shots and stealing the ball...but when I compare the two overall ratings, it makes me think that my staff has not accurately rated the player and that the OV should carry more weight, since player #2 is ranked so low.

The next question is...how much does my recruiting skill level impact the player ratings. With a 65 skill level, I would expect to get fairly accurate feedback from watching tape and live games. So, either my staff and I are really poor at evaluating talent or the OV is not to be taken that seriously.

I just don't see how my staff and I can evaluate two players so similarly and the OV be so diametrically opposed from our analysis. I get that it's not a perfect science and that you need to pick a player that suites what you want to accomplish, but there also has to be some logic to the decision making.

Recruiting skill is a baseline that determines my ability. That ability allows me to gauge whether or not I should trust my own judgement...but the OV is contradicting that basic premise and since I have no baseline to know whether or not the OV ratings are even remotely accurate, I feel like I'm simply blindly throwing darts at a board.

I think the trick is to take everything in and make...well...a scientific wild ass guess, but the OV is the wildcard here and I don't know how to weigh the validity of it's feedback. IMHO, it's either one of two things. Either my staff and I are idiots or the OV is not to be trusted.

I would love to sign them both, just to see the results, but I think it's unlikely.
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Re: Recruiting Quandary...please help me understand.

Postby Your_Imaginary_Friend » Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:49 am

I'll point this out again: Letter grades indicate POTENTIAL while rankings are a better indication of CURRENT talent. We don't see current at all except for the stats. So both players will eventually be similar, however #2 will start out lower and might not get fully developed at all. Particularly if you are at a lower quality school.

Player #2 will show up with lower current bars but potential bars to match the letter grades.
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Re: Recruiting Quandary...please help me understand.

Postby Rizzo » Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:14 pm

Your_Imaginary_Friend wrote:I'll point this out again: Letter grades indicate POTENTIAL while rankings are a better indication of CURRENT talent. We don't see current at all except for the stats. So both players will eventually be similar, however #2 will start out lower and might not get fully developed at all. Particularly if you are at a lower quality school.

Player #2 will show up with lower current bars but potential bars to match the letter grades.


Wow I never knew that! Great to know.
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