Testing Offenses in 2019

Re: Testing Offenses in 2019

Postby NCAAhoops » Tue Feb 19, 2019 6:41 pm

Won't your initial players proficiency say motion 80% then when you change to Shuffle they would be 0 or 10% proficient. Or did you account for that. In other words wouldn't you have to make each offense be the same proficient for all the players? Motion 80%, Shuffle 80% and all the others?
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Re: Testing Offenses in 2019

Postby Wayne23 » Wed Feb 20, 2019 12:00 am

When you practice the offense(s) you're using players become more and more proficient in their use over time. It takes a while. That's why my plan is to go either 4 or 5 seasons with each test association (haven't yet decided whether it will be 4 or 5 years). After I get through all of the offenses my plan is to compare how they did in year 5- Final RPI, won/lost, PPG (By the number, say 86.1 PPG, and by national rank, say #8). I am open to suggestion regarding whether there may be more accurate ways to evaluate after the final season.

And no, I cannot keep all other factors exactly equal but I can use the same Defenses, can try to be consistent in scheduling, play from the same original team, Rhode Island (I saved the original RI team on May 1 of year 1 and will start there with each test association. Still, this is not a gold standard, peer reviewed journal level of accuracy. It should give a decent idea though.
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Re: Testing Offenses in 2019

Postby Wayne23 » Wed Feb 20, 2019 12:14 am

3/7: We play #8 seed ST. Bonnie’s, 17-14, 8-10, in the quarters. We won by only 6 here.

3/8: 90-76. We broke it open in the 2nd half. 22, 6 for SF Paul Robb, 15 with 11 assists for PG Ben Hogg, 4 others with 10 or more. +7 TOs.

#5 seed Davidson, 19-13, 10-8, in the semis. They crushed us by 20 there, but that was in early January. If we play well we can win this one.

3/9: 87-77. We jumped out to a huge early lead, as many as 24. They fought back but never got closer than 7. 24, 5 for Hend, 20, 7 for Robb. +13 RBs, +6 TOs.

#3 seed Duquesne, 19-10, 12-6, for the title. We won by 9 here. We think we’re better, but not by a lot.

3/10: 83-80. We took a big early lead again, as many as 17. It was 15 at the half. They got it down to three and had the last shot, but it went long. 19, 13 for Hend, 17, 12 for PF John Hays, 18 for Hogg. +19 RBs.

We’re in the big dance. We would have been anyway but this may give us a decent seed.

3/12: #10 Midwest. We play #7 Marshall, 26-7. I thought we’d be a #7 or at worst an 8. Disappointed.

3/16: 80-72. It was a battle for 38 minutes. At that point it was tied and we went on an 11-3 run over the last two minutes. 17, 13 for Hend, 19, 6 for Robb, 16, 7 for Hays. TOs nearly did us in- 21. Fortunately, they had 18.

#2 seed, #10 ranked Louisville, 23-8, in round 2. This will be a really tough game for us. I hope we give it our best shot.

3/18: 97-82. Biggest win of my career! We led most of the way and throughout the 2nd half. Great shooting! 23, 5 for Hend, 17 each for Hays and Leil, 15, 8 for Robb.

#6 seed, #25 ranked North Carolina in the Sweet Sixteen. This is another really good team, particularly outside. It won’t be easy.

3/23: 88-98. They jumped out to a huge lead, 31 pts at one time. We did what we could but it wasn’t enough. We never quit though. 33, 12 for Joe Hend in his last college game. We’re going to miss him a lot.

4/3: Purdue repeats.

4/4: Awards: A10 POY is Joe Hend, also Def. POY and 1st team with Paul Robb. John Hays makes 2nd team and I am COY.

4/23: We ask for $. We get $4500.

26-9, 13-5. RPI #25, PPG 86.1 (#6). Overall, 49-20, .710.
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Re: Testing Offenses in 2019

Postby CoachC » Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:19 am

Wayne23 wrote:(Author's Note: The test will be after season #4 for each association. The one with the best record for season 4, and the highest PPG rating will determine things- unless one of you posts with a better idea. As to schedule differences, I schedule pretty much the same way most of the time, so I think schedules will be pretty similar.)

1/1/2020: 9-3, 2-0, #48. A 2 point road win and a 1 point home win but we’ll take it!

1/15: 12-4, 5-1. First in the A10, 1 up on 5 teams, 2 up on 4 others. It’s early. +5.9 PPG, +1.5 RBs, +1.8 TOs. Hend gets 24.2 per game and Well gets 8.8 RBs.

1/29: 14-6, 7-3, RPI #55, in a 2 way tie for 1st in the A10, with 4 teams one back and 4 more 2 back. +6.4 PPG (#32 in PPG), +3.1 RBs, +1.1 TOs. Hend gets 24.1 PPG, Well gets 9.0 RBs.

2/12: 17-7, 10-4, Tied with Duquesne for 1st, 1 up on Davidson, 2 up on 4 teams, with 4 to play. +7.4 PPG (#19), +3.6 RBs, +1.1 TOs. We finally settled on the right lineup, and we’re playing well.

2/26: 20-9, 13-5, RPI #43. Tied for first with Davidson, and the #2 seed. +6.8 PPG (#15), +4.7 RBs, +0.5 TOs. Hend gets 23.7 PPG, Well gets 8.8 RBs.

Heading for the post season!


Not a bad way to do it.. but if you are going to recruit to each team...i'd go with the one with the best record in season 5 when every player on the roster was one you brought in. Personally, i'd rather see it left up to the AI a lot more... keeping the human element out of it. your biases will still show through. still interested in seeing how this plays out.

If it were me, since you sorta almost asked, I'd skip summer every year, ( saving the same preseason lineup to use for each iteration as you suggested prior to setting up practice for season 1 for team 1 )i'd just let the ai do EVERYTHING for 4 or 5 seasons. then when team 2 starts their first season 1 with the same lineup i'd reset the practice and strategy to fit it, and let the ai do everything else again for 4 or 5 seasons...on through all 5 teams) all other variables (scheduling, etc.) for each team should wash out over a 5 year sim. a lot quicker, and probably more telling. I'm afraid the way you are doing it Wayne it is letting too much player bias into the experiment. Guess it's just the ole' experimental psychology background in me showing.
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Re: Testing Offenses in 2019

Postby CoachC » Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:35 am

i don't think you can recruit to any of these teams without introducing bias.
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Re: Testing Offenses in 2019

Postby CoachC » Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:11 am

i'd also pick a team right smack in the middle of rpi ratings over the last 5 years (i.e the team closest to an rpi of .500) trying to figure out a team like that is a headache unless you are someone that likes to play around with spreadsheets (i'm not) but i can tell you that the two CONFERENCES that have come closest to averaging an rpi of .500 over the last 5 years are the west coast conference (obviously heavily skewed by Gonzaga), and somewhat surprisingly the Ivy League only somewhat skewed by princeton. I'd pick perhaps the 3 or 4th best team in the ivy league, and you would probably have a team right smack in the middle of all DI teams, in a league that is legitimately right smack in the middle of all DI conferences. plus you would know that the AI won't be recruiting any academic non-qualifiers. :P
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Re: Testing Offenses in 2019

Postby Wayne23 » Wed Feb 20, 2019 11:29 am

I went with Team Prestige when I picked RI. Theirs was listed at 49, which I assumed was pretty near the center. While your other thoughts are right on target, if I'm going to do this I want to do it the way I play the game, trying to do things as close to the same way as possible for each offense. And I know this isn't scientifically accurate. It's also pretty boring with no backstory. I don;t know that I'll get through it, 5 seasons times 7 offenses- yikes! I took it on because when a new DDS:CB season rolls out there are usually a few updated builds, which would wipe out an association with a backstory. I saw this as a way to stay playing until the new version settled down. This time around it is starting to look like there may not be any updated builds. We'll see.

I'll stick with this through Motion, Flex, Princeton, and Triangle. We'll see if I make it through 5 Out, Shuffle, and High Post.

So this is what it is.
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Re: Testing Offenses in 2019

Postby PointGuard » Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:45 pm

All I can say is....GOOD LUCK....getting thru all those seasons and staying sane (oh that's right...you're already way past the sane part). :p

(Yeah, I'm back from my 3 weeks out of the country).
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Re: Testing Offenses in 2019

Postby Wayne23 » Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:03 pm

Sanity is over rated. Welcome back, PG!
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Re: Testing Offenses in 2019

Postby Wayne23 » Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:29 pm

5/1: #123 recruiting class. Not great. We buy East Gold.

6/5: Looking at a couple of transfers.

6/12: We get a really good looking big guy from Clemson.

6/26: We have 3 scholarships and we need guards.

8/21: We offer to 2 PGs and an SG.

9/18: Got all 3!

Preseason NIT vs. UNLV.

10/2: 1st day of practice.

We’re picked to finish 4th in the A10. We’ll do better than that.

11/6: 9 man rotation:

Juco junior Brad Goes is at PG. Junior Ben Hogg starts at SG, subs at PG.

Junior Ad Brig and juco junior Erik Dell sub at SG.

Senior Paul Robb is at SF with soph Tom Grif subbing there.

Junior Vic Walk starts at PF, subs at C. Frosh Lyn Fish subs at PF.

Senior John Hays is at C.

We start at the NIT vs. UNLV. We’re the #9 seed, they’re #8.
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